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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Mars Madness

As anybody within reach of television or newspapers knows, it’s been 40 years since humans stepped foot on the moon – a remarkable achievement. Looking back, Tom Wolfe (7/18/09 NY Times) notes that mankind has not done anything comparable since. For Mr. Wolfe the obvious solution is shooting for Mars. Surely civilization, science, and technology have progressed to the point that such an adventure is doable, as well as inspiring.

Going into outer space is like extreme sports. If cross-country skiing is exhilarating, downhill skiing is more so, and skiing from a high glacier via helicopter even more so. Perhaps we can even start and try to outrun an avalanche to really get the juices flowing.

Having begun my engineering career working on the Saturn rocket ground support computer, later integrated circuits, software, computer systems, medical devices, and now energy efficiency, I have witnessed, understood, and helped the accelerating pace of science and technology. (The Saturn rocket launched the moon missions.) That early ground support computer typically employed 4 to 8 transistors on each circuit board. It would be no exaggeration to state that a modern laptop with its almost billion-transistor chip has far more processing power than the roomful of boards, racks, and cabinets of that 1960s computer. While we have seen remarkable progress in other areas of technology, none of these have been nearly as dramatic. In particular powerful rockets needed for space exploration are limited by basic chemistry – there has been little progress or even prospect of progress in this area, as we used liquid hydrogen and oxygen then and now. It could be argued that the older Saturn-based space vehicles were better than our much newer and soon-to-be retired shuttle spacecraft and perhaps even than the spacecraft we are planning now.

We can certainly try to get there, although it would be much harder than getting to the moon. We went to the moon, explored and returned within about 2 weeks. A Mars mission would have a much narrower launch window, go more than 100 times farther, and take over two years. That’s about 50 times the duration meaning 50 times the supply of food, oxygen, and other life-support supplies. We know that in the absence of the earth’s protective atmosphere and magnetic field, radiation is a real threat. We would either ask our Mars pioneers to sign a waiver on that (as well as zero gravity conditions and other hazards) or send along heavy shielding or other countermeasures.

Considering that the federal budget is running a trillion-dollar deficit and a manned Mars mission would add trillions more, cost better be an important consideration. A Mars program could also worsen our international balance of payments deficit.

To succeed, we would have to move the Mars mission ahead of down-to-earth needs, such as fixing our ailing infrastructure, addressing global terrorism, drug abuse, heath care, energy, and global warming. Firing off rockets to Mars could only exacerbate climate change.

Beyond Mars, there are no other accessible planets and moons to visit. Where would we then go for our space adventure addiction?

The answer is simple; we needn’t go there. All of humanity (not just the chosen) can continue to delight in the far safer, satisfying, and cost-effective virtual reality of robotic space missions, while taking time to enjoy and revere our wondrous blue planet.

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